Ok, so I'm sitting in my Evangelism and Mission class right now. It's three hours long, it's hot, and it's kinda boring. What that means for you is that I have plenty of time on my hands and nothing to do except tell the SAI nation my thoughts. On tap for the moment, a preview of the big game on Saturday: UK vs. UNC.
Now, as the only representative of Tar Heel-dom (and non-UK-dom) on this blog, I feel like it is my job to offer a preview that does not come out of the Lexington, KY circles of fantasy. (stay with me, UK fans, I think you'll like what is to come)
I'll start with an honest statement, and one that I have been saying to anyone who will listen since the preseason polls came out: The University of North Carolina's College Basketball Team 2010-2011 Edition was so far overrated at preseason #8, it wasn't even funny. Even more honest: Carolina has no business being ranked at all. Why? Well, 1. they are playing like total garbage. Period. And, 2. they lost lots of talent off of last years already bad NIT team. Marcus Ginyard and Deon Thompson graduated. Ed Davis (last year's best player) is in the NBA. David and Travis Wear transferred to the west coast to be closer to their family who needed them nearby. And Will Graves was dismissed from the team for violating teams rules. So, take an NIT team, subtract 6 key players, including 4 big men, add 3 very talented freshmen (none of whom are big men), and what do you get? A team that is still bad, has only 1 legit inside presence, and are most likely NIT bound again.

Now, I know I said this would be a preview of this weekend's game, and it will be, you just have to let me soapbox for a little bit. A season of football frustrations because of morons who got too much help with papers is not the best precursor to an inevitably frustrating basketball season where the limited roster of talented players underachieves because the expectations on their heads was to be the 8th best team in the country. Anyway, on to the preview:
The game is in Chapel Hill, which, in most years, would be a homecourt advantage worth at least a handful of points. This year, however, the wine and cheese, rich, old white dude crowd in the lower part of the Dean Dome has been dead (literally and figuratively, it seems). The good thing about it is that games in Chapel Hill sell out, so the chances of UK fans getting in there is very low compared to most occasions. Don't get me wrong, there's still going to be those UK people who pay 10 times face value for a ticket so they can get in there and harass people (and I mean that in the nicest way possible, really).
[note: UK fans love their team. They get loud and they make their presence known. Sometimes they do overstep their bounds and I also get frustrated when they boo their own team/coach (ask Tubby), but they are passionate and God knows they are not a wine and cheese crowd.]
Essentially then, this is a neutral court game for UK (I really hope that is not the case, I would love to see it get loud in the Dean Dome, but I just don't see it happening). The numbers also favor Kentucky, which should come as no surprise.
Carolina is averaging 77 points per game and UK 79. The real difference is on the defensive side. Carolina gives up 70 ppg and UK 64. Now, there are better teams than UK on defense without a doubt, but Carolina is not one of those. Carolina has also struggled to score for minutes at a time in every game they've played this year. That doesn't bode well for the home team. In my mind, there are two keys to this game: Carolina's Harrison Barnes and UK's Terrance Jones. I know that may seem obvious, but, let's be real, it
is obvious.
So far this season, Carolina's offense goes as Barnes goes. When he's playing well, Carolina can run and score and shoot. When he's struggling, everything gets sluggish. He was the #1 overall recruit in the country last year, and deservedly so. So far at Carolina, however, he has not lived up to that hype. No excuses, he has just been very inconsistent. If he's on, no one on UK's team will stop him. But if he's not, he will stop himself. If Carolina has any hope at all of winning this game, Barnes needs to go for at least 20 points and help to open lanes for other key components of this team.
Terrance Jones, on the other hand, has played great all season so far. I live in Atlanta now, so I haven't been able to watch UK games like I have in the past, but it's hard to miss the highlights of Jones's season. I'm kinda scared that Jones could score 1000 points on Saturday cause I honestly have no clue who is going to guard him. Zeller is capable and is a good player, but I don't think he's quick enough to stay with Jones. Henson is incredibly athletic and a great shot blocker, but he weighs about 6.5 pounds and Jones could throw him around like a rag doll. Justin Knox has been serviceable as a backup big man and he is a legit stud body in the post, but he is just plain not good enough to play with Jones. So yeah, Jones will get his points and rebounds, probably continue to play invisible style defense (the seemingly only thing missing in his game), and make the Heels look like the small team that they are.
In the end, UK comes in to Chapel Hill and leaves with a win. Carolina drops to 4-4 and I continue to be frustrated. Prediction: UK 86, UNC 72. (And a 14 point win for UK might be generous in my favor because, even though I think UK would be somewhat overrated in the top 10, they are clearly a better team than North Carolina.)
UK fans, I am not a UK fan. I realize that some of the things I said may not be super nice to your favorite team. Do not forget, however, that I am a very realistic fan of my team. I know when we are bad, and this is one of those times. I'm not going to pretend like I pull for your team on a regular basis, and I don't think this year's team is as good as last year's, but in this matchup, they have a clear advantage. I'm going to go ahead and say it on Wednesday, December 2nd (3 days before the game):
Congratulations on your win on Saturday. UK and UNC have the two best programs in the history of college basketball. It is not a natural rivalry, but is one that has been built out of greatness from both sides. I'm sure, whatever the final score is Saturday, the winning team deserved the victory. That is all. Rant/Soapbox/Game Preview over. And I'll leave you with one thing we both can agree on. Suck on this, Duke: